Muslims voted for BJP in BIhar – A myth challenged – An Analysis by Vishnu Prasad
“For the first time since 2002, Muslims rallied behind BJP”, screaming Media for the last few days. Will BJP learn its lessons? Questions analysts after the triumph in Bihar . BJP needs a Vajpayee and a Nitish, not Modi, laments the anchors. And the poor reader taken for a ride and started believing that BJP should change, should leave Modi behind and embrace Nitish for success. But a deeper insight into the results will astonish anyone and espouse the fact that it was not Nitish’s sort of Victory, but it was Modi’s indeed.
Since some in the group raised their eyebrows about ballyhoo of the media, I felt like taking a look into it and here is my take.
I took 54 Muslim influenced constituencies in which Muslim voters exceeded 20% and tried to analyze in which way these Muslims voted. I tried to figure out that did Muslims really vote for Nitish?
( Data in link below)
Bihar Election data 2010
Did Nitish Charisma really helped BJP pulling miraculous victories in these Muslim majority constituencies?
Or, Is it the underground polarization of Hindus against Muslims in the wake of Prince Rahul gandhi’s uncalled for statements equating RSS with SIMI just a week ahead of Polls?
One has to analyze the data keeping the backdrop of the elections that were held in the wake of Ayodhya verdict, Congress’ blatant siding with Muslims and Targeting RSS amongst many others.
Here are my findings
1.Of these 54 constituencies, BJP contested in 32 and won a whopping 29 as against those of JDU’s 12 out of a total contested 22.
2.Of those 29, in 16 seats BJP won against Muslim candidates and 15 of those candidates were Hindus. The only Muslim candidate won from Amour, which is 75% Muslims and here too the margin of victory when put against the combined LJP-Congress duo, is a mere 2000 votes. ( Yet this can be an exception to my claim)
3.in all the three seats where BJP lost, BJP lost to Muslim candidates and all those defeated were Hindus. And all these three constituencies have more than 45% Muslim votes. Interestingly, in Kishangunj,where Muslims are 65%, BJP lost by a mere 244 votes and amassed the votes almost equal to polled Hindu votes ( proportionately calculated) and 65% Muslim votes seem to be exactly got divided between Congress and RJD.
4.On the other hand, look at the fate of the Nitish led JDU. JDU has lost 10 out of 22 seats contested. More interesting is the way it lost. Of the 10 seats it lost, it lost 5 seats to Muslim candidates.
5. In another 4 seats it lost, JDU fielded muslim candidates keeping the demography in view but surprisingly lost to Hindu candidates.
What do these results suggest? One plausible explanation could be that Hindu vote bank got consolidated while Muslims were confused and scattered between Congress and RJD but surely not rallied behind BJP, and definitely not behind Nitish as claimed by the secular media. But unfortunately our minds have been so trained that we could not dare to imagine that Hindu vote bank could be consolidated and throw the mlechha out.
True , development could have been one, in fact the biggest, factor but never undermine the undercurrent of Hindu renaissance. To me , Bihari voter has categorically answered the secular media and secular leaders too, with one go. Enough of belittling Hindu cause, Hindu leaders and Hindu organizations.
With their voice loud and clear, They avowed “What if you don’t welcome Shri Narendra Modiji, we do.”
I hope Nitish and secular media listening.