Arise Bharat

– @KesariDhwaj

Did Ayodhya desert the BJP? Well, the devil they say, is always in the details. If you see the numbers and the polling history for Ayodhya (Faizabad), the numbers tell a very different story. The people of Faizabad did not abandon the BJP. Period. Yes, there is some loss of votes compared to 2019 but that alone does not explain the BJP’s defeat here. SP and Congress had a better game plan. This loss can be understood because of massive anti-incumbency, lack of on-ground effort, etc. Because, despite enormous anti-incumbency against the sitting BJP MP from Faizabad, Lallu Singh, people did vote for him and the BJP.

What has happened in Faizabad is a very smart jugalbandi between the SP and Congress. The result of 2024 lies in what happened in 2019, when BSP and INC votes got transferred to SP. Just look at the numbers below:

2014 Elections: BJP gains the seat from INC with a high vote share (48.08%) and a huge margin (27.65%) over its nearest rival, SP. BSP and INC are players in this election on this seat with a combined vote share of 26.75%.

2019 Elections: This is where it gets very interesting.

(a) BJP won again with 48.65% of the vote. Its vote share increased by a marginal 0.57% over 2014. Overall, the number of votes increased by 7.6% over 2014.

(b) Samajwadi Party: Massive gain in votes and vote share! Its vote share increased by a massive 22.19% compared to 2014. Similarly, the absolute number of votes increased by a whopping 121.8%! But where did these massive numbers (a gain of 254,558 votes over 2014) come from?

Just look at the BSP and INC votes in 2019: BSP is out of the race, and this means its votes had to go somewhere. Similarly, the number of votes polled by the INC in 2019 fell by almost 59% as compared to 2014. Between BSP and INC, ~2,19,000 votes had to go somewhere. The BJP seems to have gotten a very small share of these numbers. And it seems most of these votes went to the SP. So, from a gap of 27.65% votes between the BJP and SP in 2014, the gap had reduced to a mere 6.02% in 2019. From here, it was game on!

2024 Elections: Compared to 2019, the BJP’s vote share fell by 4.84%, while the overall number of votes fell by 5.5%. SP’s vote share increased by 5.97%, and the overall number of votes increased by 19.6%. The difference between the SP and BJP was 4.78% and 54,567 votes. The question is, where did SP gain votes from, and where did BJP lose its votes? Again, look at the numbers:

– The overall voting percentage increased by 4.9%. – So, more people came out and voted, and it seems these additional votes went mainly to SP.

– Second, Congress did not field a candidate! This means the bulk of its votes from 2019 (53,386) would’ve been transferred to SP.

– Mind you, the winning margin for SP is ~54,500 votes

– BSP again fielded candidates in 2024, unlike last time.

– Would this have helped or harmed the BJP?

– There are two possibilities: (1). It prevented the SC votes of Congress from being transferred 100% to SP (2). It ate into the SC votes of the BJP.

Long story short, despite massive anti-incumbency against the BJP candidate, Ayodhya still came out and voted for it. SP and Congress had a better game plan and on-ground mobilization, and I’m expecting higher Muslim voter turnout would’ve also helped. The Muslim vote did not split between Congress and the SP. BJP needed better candidate and election management. Jai Shree Ram!

Credits to: @VatsRohit on X

Source Link: https://x.com/KesariDhwaj/status/1798592546161176612